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Future evolution of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario predicts a reduction of 8% in energy consumption between 2012 and 2030. Compared to 1990 emissions, the reduction in 2030 would be 5%. The consumption by buildings (residential and tertiary sectors) would decrease respectively by 10% and 5%.
Emissions of greenhouse gases would decrease by 10% between 2012 and 2030. Compared to 1990 emissions, the reduction in 2025 would be 17%.
Despite this reduction, greenhouse gas emissions would still be 13% higher than the regional objective set for 2025. To achieve this objective, it will be necessary not only to implement the measures of the Air-Climate-Energy plan, but also achieve the mobility objectives of the IRIS 2 plan.

Models to predict the future evolution

In order to understand the potential effectiveness of the planned policies, various scenarios have been worked out. These are intended to estimate the future evolution of certain factors depending on the envisaged hypotheses.

Consequently, in the context of the drafting of the Air-Climate-Energy plan, various scenarios have been worked out to calculate the estimated evolution of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (excluding fluorinated gases). Among these, BAU scenarios simulate the expected situation assuming that the observed trends will continue, along with the implementation of policies which have already been approved/initiated. In the context of this Report on the State of the Environment, these trend scenarios are preferred. The other scenarios have been studied in the context of the Environmental Report of the draft Air-Climate-Energy plan.

What are the assumptions for the business-as-usual scenarios?

The business-as-usual scenario takes into account the evolution of energy consumption in the absence of the implementation of the Air-Climate-Energy plan (as adopted at the second reading on 6 April 2015), based on the trends identified between 2001 and 2012 and for a climate corresponding to the average of the last 10 years.

The measures included in the model are:

  • For the building sector:
    • The regulation which has already been adopted, in particular in the Brussels Code for the Air, Climate and Energy Management (COBRACE), the Energy Efficiency of Buildings regulation 2015 and technical installations, the PLAGE regulation and the energy audit;
    • The projects which were already implemented in 2012, in particular the "Exemplary Buildings" project.
  • For road transport:
    • The improvement of the public transport offer and the complete implementation of the RER from 2025 onwards (envisaged by the IRIS 2 plan).

The Environmental Report of the draft Air-Climate-Energy plan provides more methodological details if necessary (cfr. chapters 4.1 and 5.6.2).

Evolution of energy consumption

Simulated evolution of total energy consumption in the BCR according to the business-as-usual scenario
Source: Brussels Environment, Dpt Planning air, energy and climate, 2015

Compared to current levels (actual climate), the business-as-usual scenario (simulated with a constant climate, namely the average of the last 10 years, as a reminder) shows a reduction of 8% in energy consumption between 2012 and 2030, and of 5% as compared to 1990.

Simulated evolution of energy consumption in the building sector in the BCR according to the business-as-usual scenario
Source: Brussels Environment, Dpt Planning air, energy and climate, 2015

With regards to the building sector (residential and tertiary), the business-as-usual scenario shows a reduction of 10% in energy consumption between 2012 and 2030, and of 5% compared to 1990.

Evolution of greenhouse gas emissions

Likely evolution of total emissions of greenhouse gases in the BCR according to the business-as-usual scenario and distance to the regional objective.
Source: Brussels Environment, Dpt Planning air, energy and climate, 2015

The business-as-usual scenario shows a reduction of 10% in greenhouse gas emissions from 2012 to 2030, and of 17% in 2025 compared to 1990. The distance to the regional climate objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2025 would therefore be 13%.

Simulated evolution of greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector in the BCR according to the business-as-usual scenario
Source: Brussels Environment, Dpt Planning air, energy and climate, 2015

 

The business-as-usual scenario shows a reduction of 17% in greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector (residential and tertiary), between 2012 and 2030, and of 22% in 2025 compared to 1990.

Conclusions

Taking into account the envisaged scenarios, the business-as-usual scenario shows that if the general trend for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is decreasing, it is not decreasing sufficiently to enable the Region to achieve the regional climate objective, in other words reducing the greenhouse gas emission levels of 1990 by 30% by 2025.
According to the simulations which have been made, in order for the Region to achieve its climate and air quality objectives, it needs to implement not only the measures of the Air-Climate-Energy plan, but also achieve the mobility objective of the IRIS 2 plan (see the Report on the Environmental Impact of the draft plan for more details).

Date de mise à jour: 06/12/2017